Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic for Employability and Growth in Emerging Countries

(Lecciones de la pandemia de COVID-19 para la empleabilidad y el crecimiento en los países emergentes)

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Mendoza Rodriguez, Leonardo Sebastian 1 https://orcid.org/0009-0000-7999-0091

plan, to improve digital and internet access, and to strengthen the occupational health infrastructure. Contribution: Labor

informality in Peru during the Pandemic made it difficult to provide aid based on registration number; it is urgent to accelerate

labor formalization with tax incentives. Keywords: Lessons, COVID-19 Pandemic, employability, economic growth, emerging

countries

Resumen. Introducción: La pandemia del COVID-19 afectó la economía de países emergentes como el Perú, volviéndola

dependiente de la minería y la informalidad laboral. Objetivo: Determinar las medidas implementadas durante la pandemia a

prestación de asistencia basada en números de registro. Urge acelerar la formalización laboral con incentivos fiscales.

Palabras clave: Lecciones, pandemia COVID-19, empleabilidad, crecimiento económico, países emergentes.

Resumen. Introducción: La pandemia de COVID-19 afecta a la economía de países emergentes como el Perú, tornando-o

dependiente de la minería y la informalidad del trabajo. Objetivo: determinar las medidas implementadas durante una

pandemia a partir del análisis del Producto Interno Bruto (PIB) en 2020. Metodología: percibir las variaciones que generarán

una recuperación gradual de la economía peruana a partir de 2021 Resultados: arrecadação de impostos apresentou uma

melhora a a partir de 2021, evidenciando la reactivación económica, mientras taxa de desemprego atingiu níveis elevados em

Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic for Employability and Growth in Emerging Countries

(Lecciones de la pandemia de COVID-19 para la empleabilidad y el crecimiento en los países emergentes)

This article is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)

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1. Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted the Peruvian economy, highlighting the structural

weaknesses of its productive sectors and the high dependence on the global economy. This health

crisis scenario led to a series of restrictive measures that paralyzed key economic activities,

generating an unprecedented contraction; the lessons that this pandemic has caused are

considered relevant, so as to minimize the impact on the economic sector and employability. In

this context, analyzing the economic variation in Peru during this period allows us to understand

the effects of a global crisis in a country with particular characteristics such as its dependence on

mining and labor informality.

quarters (INEI, 2021).

Domestically, the total lockdown measures implemented since March 2020 led to a contraction of

11.1% in the national GDP, one of the most severe in Latin America according to the ECLAC report

(2021). Sectors such as commerce and services were the most affected due to their high

concentration of informal workers, who represented nearly 70% of the Peruvian workforce (INEI,

2020). In addition, the closure of micro and small businesses increased the unemployment rate,

affecting the purchasing power of families and deepening social inequalities.

On the other hand, the public sector adopted countercyclical policies to mitigate the effects of the

crisis. Programs such as “Reactiva Perú” injected liquidity into companies through soft loans

backed by the State, while social bonds sought to alleviate the precariousness of the most

a 17% drop in private investment during 2020. This decline was particularly visible in sectors

such as construction and infrastructure, which depend on large projects paralyzed by health

restrictions and low business confidence.

Thus, Peru's economic variation during the COVID-19 pandemic highlights the importance of

having solid public policies, a diversified economy and a sustained focus on the formalization of

employment, key factors to face future crises and preserve economic stability in scenarios of high

global vulnerability.

This paper refers to the economy during a health crisis such as the COVID-19 pandemic, which

is affected by several factors, such as falling production, rising unemployment, and declining

Economic variation during the pandemic

Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic for Employability and Growth in Emerging Countries

(Lecciones de la pandemia de COVID-19 para la empleabilidad y el crecimiento en los países emergentes)

This article is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)

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impact on national economies. In the Peruvian case, there were significant decreases in private

consumption, exports, and public and private investment. According to the Central Reserve Bank

and tourism services, among others.

Economic policy during the pandemic

During the pandemic, the Peruvian government implemented expansionary fiscal and monetary

policies to mitigate the economic effects of the health crisis. The measures included direct

subsidies, credit lines and tax moratoriums. Likewise, the BCRP adopted interest rate reduction

policies to encourage credit and investment, seeking to reactivate the economy.

Economic growth rate

process, a gradual reactivation of the productive sectors is expected, with the support of

and encourage investment. The interest rate is a crucial factor in economic activity, as it influences

the consumption and investment decisions of businesses and households.

Exchange rate

The exchange rate during the pandemic also experienced fluctuations due to global economic

uncertainty and expansionary monetary policies in major countries. According to the BCRP, the

nominal exchange rate was affected by the variability of international economies, especially the

US dollar. This impacted the purchasing power of consumers and the prices of imported products,

which in turn affected inflation.

External sector variables

1.2. Impact of the pandemic on the economy of emerging countries

External shocks, such as a global pandemic, alter national economic behaviors due to the

disruption of trade flows, falling investment, and increasing economic uncertainty. The external

shock model can be applied to understand how Peru was affected by the health crisis,

experiencing a drop in GDP and an increase in poverty levels, as indicated by previous studies on

economic crises and public health.

1.2.1. Fiscal and monetary policy theory in times of crisis

Government intervention is key during a crisis, as demonstrated by the expansionary fiscal policy

and accommodative monetary policy adopted by the Peruvian government and the BCRP. These

policies seek to mitigate the negative effects of the crisis through direct stimulus to the economy,

Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic for Employability and Growth in Emerging Countries

(Lecciones de la pandemia de COVID-19 para la empleabilidad y el crecimiento en los países emergentes)

This article is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)

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During the analysis through the theory of cyclical unemployment, which explains how the fall of

the pandemic, unemployment in Peru increased due to the economic slowdown. This

during a health crisis. However, it is also possible to observe structural unemployment due to

changes in the labor market, such as digitalization and automation in response to the pandemic.

The theoretical information is aligned with the following objective: To determine the relevant

lessons of the COVID-19 Pandemic for Employability and Growth in Emerging Countries

1.3. Justification

This research has a theoretical justification because it will contribute to the understanding of how

and the fiscal and monetary policies implemented, it seeks to enrich the existing theoretical

Likewise, this research has a practical justification, since the results obtained will be useful for

those responsible for Peru's economic policy, offering recommendations on the application of

more effective fiscal and monetary measures in health emergency situations. The analysis will

help improve the economic response to future crises, ensuring a faster and more sustained

recovery of the national economy.

1.3.1 Importance and limitations in the research

Relevance : The relevance of this research lies in its potential to provide critical information on

how the pandemic affected the Peruvian economy, which can serve as a basis for future studies

on the economic resilience of developing countries in the face of global health crises.

key economic indicators. In addition, the findings may influence future policymaking to manage

the economic repercussions of similar global events.

Originality : The originality of this research lies in the specific focus on the Peruvian economy

during the period 2020-2022 and its relationship with the COVID-19 pandemic. The use of

statistical software for data analysis and the application of economic modeling techniques will

ensure that the results are robust and genuine, and their originality will be verified through anti-

plagiarism systems .

2. Method

Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic for Employability and Growth in Emerging Countries

(Lecciones de la pandemia de COVID-19 para la empleabilidad y el crecimiento en los países emergentes)

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2021).

The level or scope of the research is explanatory, following Hernández et al. (2014), who define

association between two or more variables. This study will analyze how health restrictions, the

drop in household income, and the economic policies implemented during the pandemic

influenced the main economic variables of Peru, such as GDP, employment, exports, and tax

collection. To do this, an econometric model will be used to explain the degree of association

between these variables and their changes during the period 2020-2021 (World Bank, 2022;

Bravo Saldaña & Saldaña Paredes, 2022).

observing phenomena as they occurred in reality, in order to then analyze them and understand

associated with the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic (Hernández et al., 2014).

The methodology used is deductive, starting from general theories on economic crises and their

impact on national economies towards a specific analysis of the Peruvian case. As mentioned by

Hernández et al. (2014), the deductive method starts from theoretical premises to derive

hypotheses that will be evaluated with the available data. This approach will make it possible to

explain how global and national factors associated with the pandemic impacted the Peruvian

economy.

2.2. Population and sample

quarterly information from the years 2020 and 2021, since it is the period that covers the

economic crisis generated by the pandemic. The data include key indicators such as the Gross

Domestic Product (GDP), the unemployment rate and tax collection, along with variables

associated with the factors of the impact of COVID-19, such as health restrictions, fiscal policies

and the drop in household income.

The sample size will be determined by the specific period of the pandemic, covering data from the

first quarter of 2020 to the last quarter of 2021, resulting in a total of 8 quarterly observations (2

years). The sample is drawn from data available in official sources such as the Central Reserve

Bank of Peru (BCRP), the National Institute of Statistics and Informatics (INEI), and other relevant

government reports. Non-probability sampling will be used for convenience, given that the

Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic for Employability and Growth in Emerging Countries

(Lecciones de la pandemia de COVID-19 para la empleabilidad y el crecimiento en los países emergentes)

This article is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)

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economy as a whole, analyzing the main economic variables and sectors affected during the

pandemic period.

2.4. Variables

The World Bank (2022) points out that the economic impacts of COVID-19 can be analyzed using

observable variables. For this study, two main variables will be used: an independent one called

“Factors associated with the impact of COVID-19” and a dependent one called “Economic variation

in Peru”.

Indicators for the independent variable include health restrictions, fiscal policies, and falling

household income.

As an illustration, Table 1 presents the operationalization of the variables.

Lessons from the COVID-19 Pandemic for Employability and Growth in Emerging Countries

(Lecciones de la pandemia de COVID-19 para la empleabilidad y el crecimiento en los países emergentes)

This article is licensed under the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (CC BY 4.0)

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The data will be loaded and organized in worksheets, specifying the quarterly frequency, as

defined above. Once the data for all variables have been organized, the relevant analyses will be

the hypothesis raised in the research on the economic effects of the pandemic in Peru will be

tested.

2.7. Hypothesis Peru's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) experienced a contraction during the

pandemic due to the reduction in economic activity and the closure of key sectors. The inflation

rate in Peru increased during the pandemic due to the effects of lockdowns, supply chain

disruption and price fluctuations.

using time series of the variables Gross Domestic Product (GDP), unemployment rate and tax

identifying possible trends and fluctuations. This analysis will be carried out by calculating the

variation rates between consecutive periods, which will allow us to assess whether the data show

significant changes over time.

The relationships between the variables will then be explored by calculating simple correlations.

This will allow us to identify whether there is a relationship between, for example, the fall in GDP

and the rise in unemployment, or between tax collection and general economic activity.

Additionally, possible irregularities in the data will be checked through a basic dispersion

analysis, observing whether the fluctuations are within expected ranges or whether there are

atypical values that may distort the conclusions.

Finally, the results obtained will be interpreted, highlighting the main interactions between the

education, sustainability and strategic planning for growth and employability in emerging

countries. The lessons derived from these analyses can guide post-pandemic policies, balancing

economic growth with social well-being.

5. Conclusions

Tax collection followed a contrary trend: after an initial drop in 2020, it began to increase in 2021

and peaked in May 2022. This suggests that, as the economy recovered, the government was able

to collect more taxes as economic activity normalized.

The unemployment rate, on the other hand, showed a sharp increase during 2020, with the

highest point in May of that year, due to massive job losses. Then, the unemployment rate started

to decline in 2021 and followed a downward trend, although it still remains relatively high until

providing greater digital access and speed to institutions and workers; and greater internet

coverage to all populations, a situation that has not yet occurred; in addition, forming a brigade at

the neighborhood level to control and verify work activity; in addition to the type of activity

carried out, which may be valid for similar purposes.

References

Central Reserve Bank of Peru. (2021). Long-term effects of COVID-19 in Peru. Inflation Report,

December 2021, Box 4 , 80-85. Central Reserve Bank of Peru.

World Bank. Introduction: The economic impacts of the COVID-19 crisis. World Development

Report 2022. Retrieved from: